Discussion on New home sales fall but stronger than expecte

Schumpeter Reincarnate Joined: 24 May 2008 Posts: 46255

http://ml-implode.com/viewnews.....ected.html

Dud? Joined: 01 Jan 1970 Posts: 16

If the numbers quoted are based upon closings for each month then this can’t be right.

You must take into account that currently we have Short Sales which lenders processing time to approval (from start to finish) is anywhere between 60 days minimum to 90 or longer. WAMU is about 120 on a good day. Countrywide averages 90 but they don’t quote it.

If we had the sales going through in the time periods which would be deemed ‘normal’ we would have higher closings to report, giving better numbers to rally consumer confidence back that much sooner. As it stands now regardless of how you look at it, if lenders don’t get their act together and shorten the time frames for short sale approvals then we’re going to continue to hurt. Lets not forget to mention that if that process takes 90 days the property is no longer worth what it was at the beginning and we are losing buyers left and right because ‘ they aren’t going to pay that price anymore ‘. What does that do for the lender – just starts it all over again.

I believe someone needs to get into the trenches and really see what is going on from the people vs the talking points being touted by FNMA, FHLMC, FDIC and Realty Trac.

Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:08 pm

travelare:

That is *always* a consideration with the new home sales numbers (and really any sales numbers). If you look at the report you'll see they note that the previous two months were revised up, thus making this month's month-to-month fall "look worse" than it really was.

However, this effect can work in both directions, giving the impression of month-to-month phantom sales increases due to high levels of cancellations. That is part of the reason pundits spent almost all of last year "bottom calling".

The real remedy to getting the wrong idea is to look at the year-over-year numbers as well.